Think the unthinkable

Charles Disckens so started his "A tale of two cities" -

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way..."

It's disturbing to watch the tension building up between Japan and China; Japan and Korea; as well China mainland and Taiwan. Their path forward depends on whether their leaders and citizens are wise enough to come to terms with history, visionary enough not to let their past eat up their future, and brave enough to embrace their old foes. Their destiny is in their hands whether they will rise to the call of history to invent peace and prosperity. Will it be an "age of wisdom" or "foolishness"? The "season of Light" or "season of Darkness"? The "spring of hope" or "winter of despair"? Is East Asia "going direct to Heaven" or "the other way"?

The Europeans have set a modern model for the invention of peace through "The United States of Europe" (T.R. Reid). Will the East Asians stand up and prove rival to their European neighbours on wisdom, vision, and braveness? It was unthinkable for most Europeans to vision a united Europe half century ago. Will this miracle manifest again in the East? Here's an excellent article telling you the hope of the unthinkable is on the horizon...

Thinking the unthinkable, a Confucian union
By Jan Krikke
Asia Times Online (http://www.atimes.com/)

JOMTIEN, Thailand - In 10 to 15 years East Asia will form a political-economic union along the lines of the European Union. It will follow the reunification of the two Koreas, likely to occur around 2007. A "Confucian" union will integrate Japan into East Asia the way the EU integrated Germany into Europe. By about 2020, the East Asia Union will be the world's most powerful bloc, ahead of the EU and US-led North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). And its core will be China.

Amazing? Credible? Incredible? Making these bold predictions is Lawrence Taub, an American futurist living in Tokyo, who recently visited Thailand. Taub has a long record of forecasting global trends in astonishing detail. In the 1970s, he predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall, Iran's Islamic Revolution, and the entry of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). His most recent book, which includes some of these futurist concepts, is The Spiritual Imperative: Sex, Age, and the Last Caste.

Is Taub risking his reputation by predicting a Confucian Union between China, Korea and Japan? Tensions are rising between Japan and South Korea over fisheries and possibly mineral-rich islands and sea beds, still unexplored; between Japan and China over oil and gas-rich islands where exploitation is contested. Resentment toward Japan runs deep in both China and Korea, over colonialism and World War II atrocities, and a union of almost any sort between the three countries would seem improbable to most observers. But Taub is adamant. "Enemies can become friends almost overnight," he told Asia Times Online in a sit-down interview.

Taub predicted the formation of a Confucian Union in his book, but during an interview with this correspondent he proposed an additional reason: that Korea and China would be able to "neutralize" any Japanese military threat - both nations are concerned about what they see as the threat of renewed Japanese militarism - by absorbing it into a political union. That makes the overall argument for a Confucian Union even more compelling.

"France and Germany formed the European Union less than a decade after fighting a bitter war. The EU integrated Germany into the European family of nations and neutralized its militaristic tendencies. But more importantly, the formation of unions is a sign of our times. Regional economies are banding together. They integrate their economies to pack a bigger punch in the global trade arena. Unions like NAFTA, ASEAN, the EU, and Mercosur [a South American economic union] make individual states stronger vis-a-vis other blocs."

Macro-history with a twist
Lawrence Taub is not an average, popular political observer or predictor of the future. He is among a select group of scholars to have developed a comprehensive macro-history. Macro-historians rely on "grand narratives" of human history to forecast future scenarios. Recent examples are Francis Fukuyama's The End of History and Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations. Most historians and political commentators usually focus on their own areas of expertise - economics, technology, culture, business - which narrow the scope of their forecasts. Moreover, they tend to be Eurocentric and male-oriented. Taub is neither. His macro-history draws on Indian and Chinese thought, and like few other macro-historians, he claims women will play a key role in shaping the future.

When asked about other historians, political commentators and futurists, Taub quoted the American poet John Godfrey Saxe: "Though each was partly in the right, all were in the wrong." He pointed to Alvin Toffler's "third wave" theory as an example. "Toffler accurately describes the transition from agricultural to industrial to post-industrial society. That's a valid model, but it's only part of the picture. Toffler's macro-history could not predict the rise of East Asia as the world's leading economic center, nor the emergence of religious fundamentalism as the strong political force that it has become, which in the long run will evolve and have profound socio-economic implications in the future."

The caste model
The centerpiece of Taub's macro-history is what Taub calls the Caste Model, a remarkable synthesis of the ancient Indian Theory of Caste and actual historical development. Most observers agree that the world's economic center of gravity is moving from the West to East Asia, but Taub's Caste Model gives this historical shift a theoretical basis. Taub argues the world is in the midst of a transition from the merchant caste age to the worker caste age.

Taub explained that the merchant caste age was dominated by capitalists, industrialists and landowners. Its source of power was capital and its social ideal the "self-made man". The worker caste age is dominated by technocrats and bureaucrats. Its source of power is scientific and managerial knowledge, and its social ideal is the "organization man". Taub acknowledged that East Asia also has its merchants, but he argued that Confucian Asia is more in tune with the worker caste age than either Europe or the United States.

Taub said several factors will make the formation of a Confucian Union inevitable, among them a shared cultural heritage and growing international competition. "Despite a turbulent past and lingering animosity, the three countries speak the same cultural language, and their economies are increasingly integrated. Last year, China replaced the United States as Japan's largest trading partner. With the largest dollar reserves in the world, Japan and China resemble two mountain climbers linked by a rope. Technological cooperation between China, Japan and Korea is growing. Over-reliance on US-made software has fueled concerns about national security and industrial espionage and led to an initiative to develop CJK Linux, an Asian version of open source software."

Korean unification
Taub believes a reunified Korea will precede the formation of a Confucian Union. Asked about how reunification would come about, he said it would not be a repeat of the German experience. "North Korea is much poorer than East Germany was at the time," he told Asia times Online. "Spontaneous reunification is unlikely. But there will be a parallel with the German example. Just before it happens, when it will seem impossible, the momentum toward reunification will surge rapidly. The momentum is likely to start building in 2006, with reunification probably in 2007. The last hurdle will be the fate of North Korea's current leaders. They will insist on guarantees they won't be thrown in jail. China may offer them asylum."

Recent developments appear to support Taub's forecast. In December last year, the Guardian reported that European policymakers have been advised to prepare for "sudden changes" in North Korea. A European delegation, after visiting Pyongyang, predicted the collapse of the regime. The Guardian also cited Chinese academics who report a growing number of defections among North Korean diplomats. The South Korean press reported that the Austrian police prevented the assassination of Kim Jong-il's son Kim Jong-nam, by backers of another son of Kim Jong-il. All signs point at a power struggle in the top of the North Korean leadership, which in turn may explain the dying nation's nuclear saber-rattling.

Confucianism, communism, nationalism
Taub said he does not foresee problems with democratic Japan and Korea forming a political union with communist China. He believes pragmatism will prevail. He also pointed out that communism has become a mere label in China's political theater, but argued at the same time that communism and Confucianism have many similarities.

"Confucianism and communism, especially as introduced by Mao [Zedong] Ho [Chi Minh], and Kim [Jong-il], were compatible," he said. "Confucianism, like communism, has no Godfather figure. And communism's strong state sits well with Confucian tradition, which is centered on the group, the family, the community, and the state. When the Deng Xiaoping government initiated reform, the ideological transition was smooth. The government didn't have to worry about the weight of opposing tradition, only about the Gang of Four - Mao's wife Jiang Ching and her three Cultural Revolution radical allies. All it had to do was go from socialism without a free market and private enterprise to socialism with a free market and private enterprise."

Taub has argued the name "socialist democracy" is not an oxymoron. "It perfectly describes the half-communist, half-capitalist hybrid system that all industrialized or industrializing countries are currently developing," he said. "It is a system that is half market and private business-driven and half highly central-government-regulated. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan also have that system - in fact Japan pioneered it - but they call themselves capitalist. Most Western European countries call themselves social democracies, which sounds pretty close to socialist democracy."

William Kelly, intercultural communications lecturer at the University of Southern California who wrote a foreword to Taub's books, pointed out that nationalism - strong in China and Korea and growing in Japan - will not necessarily be a hindrance to the formation of a Confucian Union. "It is obvious that the only way to fulfill the desire for national glory as well as economic success is by getting together in a union and being stronger than the other two blocs [the EU and NAFTA]," said Kelly. "First, Japanese militarism could be neutralized by such a bloc. But the real future danger could be Chinese rather than Japanese nationalism, since there is much resentment and a sense of grievance behind it."

Paradox
How should the United States respond to Asia's growing economic clout? Taub said America would do well to support the formation of a Confucian bloc. "The United States' main fear is that China will dominate global trade and technology, and emerge as an economic and military threat to the US," he said. "China has to make political and economic reforms before it can become a global power, but it eventually will make these reforms. This will transform China into a liberal democracy like Japan and Korea. Liberal democracies don't make war on each other. So it's not likely China will pose a military threat to the US. That's the paradox of the current worker caste age. A country can't become a real global military threat until it becomes a liberal democracy. But then it is no longer a threat."

The American government frequently pressures the Chinese government to further reform its system. Taub agrees with this approach, but points out that the US also needs reform. If the US doesn't overhaul its social-economic system, he said, it will drop too far behind the EU and the emerging Confucian bloc. "The US, like all other advanced countries, has a worker-age system, and its ruling elite is mainly worker caste. But half its mind is still stuck in the merchant age: money and wealth at any price. The United States' merchant caste and its world view made the US the leading country in the world. This explains why countries that reach the top in one age, tend to lose power in a subsequent age. They find it hard to change a winning formula, even as the system starts cracking at the seams. The first impulse is to reach for patches."

Taub said the foreign and domestic policy of US President George W Bush reflects this merchant-age backwardness. "The invasion of Iraq was, in part, classic merchant age: start a war for business purposes - oil, weapons, reconstruction contracts, etc. The United States' merchant-minded leadership is making it hard for working Americans to do their jobs, and use their professional/managerial skills to keep the country competitive. Medical and legal costs are out of control, 45 million people lack health insurance, teachers are underpaid and undervalued, and filing lawsuits is a national pastime that squanders precious resources. If China has to make reforms to become competitive, the US must make reforms to stay competitive."

Kaifeng's warning for America

Nicholas Kristof, in his International Herald Tribune column May 22 this year, lists the cities he considers the most important in the world at 500–year intervals, going back millennia.
The list:
2000 B.C. — Ur, Iraq
1500 B.C. — Thebes, Egypt
1000 B.C. — Sidon, Lebanon
500 B.C. — Persepolis, Persia
The Year 1 — Rome, Italy
500 A.D. — Changan, China
1000 A.D. — Kaifeng, China
1500 A.D. — Florence, Italy
Today — New York City, New York
2500 A.D. — "Probably none of the above"
His column is devoted to just how great empires come to get that way, and how they destroy themselves. (Bookofjoe)

As this millennium dawns, New York is the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth.

But before New Yorkers become too full of themselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.

Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in A.D. 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans. This column's headline - translated from Chinese, a language of the future that more Americans should start learning - is "glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."

As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.

My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York; and in 2500, probably none of the above.

Today, Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change.

In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000. An ancient painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business. Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.

As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the United States illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader. "China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades, and we'll catch up with the United States, even pass it."

She's right. The United States has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass it in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.

So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?

One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years. A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world - and that was the beginning of the end.

I worry about the United States in both regards. America's economic management is so lax that it can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. American technology is strong, but public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.

Beside the Yellow River, I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name - and yet his progeny were different. "Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.

Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate Americans to struggle to improve their high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if they rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.

A Mosaic of Testimony to A Beautiful World

Shall we pull out of Iraq now?

It seems that the voice of anti-war movement to pull out of Iraq now has been up quite a few notches with each point drop of Bush's job-approval rate. I'm with those who believe we used the wrong excuse to invade Iraq. However, regardless itself wrong or right of the real reason for the president to send American troops to Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein, and regardless how we felt the stories were sexied up to justify the cause, it's irresponsible for America to pull out of Iraq now or any time soon unless people can be assured that the new Iraqis government is ready to rule their own country. The pre-mature drop-out in Afghanistan after the war against the Soviet occupation was a lesson learned the hard way, which took more lives and resources to correct the mistake America made more than two decades ago. It's one thing to offer condolence to families that have lives lost in Iraq, and provide solid support to these families to tackle their emotional and financial difficulties, and yet quite another to base our sorrow and sympathy, or even guilt, to make a critical decision with substantial consequences. A new wrong doesn't necessarily correct the old, if we believe it was. All things considered, we'll be better off to be with the president and finish the job in Iraq. In the end, who can say no to a new democratic Iraq? The reason of initiating the war may be wrong, but the accomplishment can be noble.

Remember the Pottery Barn rule: "You break it, you own it..." America should have the will and stamina to win the ultimate war, which is peace. To pull it out now will be less likely of peace, and America will have to pay a higher price down the road.